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In the case of complex problems, one of the first steps is to break the problem down into a series of simple problems and solve each of these individually, one at a time. A good example is the Schroedingers cat problem:
We ask ourselves: «What’s the probability that the cat is alive or dead?» If the cat is alive, then we solve the next problem: «What’s the probability that it’s in a box?». If the cat is dead, we ask «What’s the probability that it’s not in a box?»
This strategy can be extended to any domain where we have to make decisions to reach a goal. It’s a strategy known as the «bread and butter» approach to problem solving.
Step 5: Confirm the solution
So far we have to have figured out all the components of the model and developed a solution. But we don’t yet have enough confidence in the results to use it in practice.
In the next step, we ask ourselves: «How sure am I that this solution is right, and what should I do about it?» For example, if you’ve just solved a very complicated math problem, the last thing you’d do is hand in your solution and move on to the next problem. You would check that your solution was correct by comparing it to other answers in the literature and/or running it against a set of test data.
The problem was not solved correctly.
Possible reasons why it’s not possible to predict the future
Our brain makes predictions in order to make our lives go more smoothly, and so we tend to build into our predictions some aspects of our experiences. For example, if you know that all of your friends like Chinese food, it’s easy to assume that when you go to a Chinese restaurant you’ll have a good time.
In most situations, however, our predictions are not very accurate, and our errors are actually a very important part of what
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